Mandate 2024 | Will Naveen make or be history?

The drumbeats of history are indeed beating loud and clear for Naveen. By setting out on these packed roadshows, Odisha’s five-time chief minister is hoping to reap another rich harvest of votes and break all electoral records with a sixth consecutive term for the BJD and himself. Elections to the state’s 147 legislative assembly seats are being held simultaneously with that for its 21 Lok Sabha seats. If Naveen wins and becomes chief minister again, he will be in pole position to overtake Pawan Chamling’s record as the longest-serving chief minister in the country’s legislative history. Chamling was Sikkim CM for 24 years and 165 days. On June 4, when the results will be announced, Naveen would have completed 24 years and 91 days, short by a mere 74 days to claim the top honours. But should he fail to secure a majority in the state polls, he will be history as, at age 77, this will probably be the last election he will contest.

More than a show of force, these rallies are a show of face for Naveen. Especially after leaders of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), his main rival in the state, have spread vile rumours about him being seriously ill, suffering from dementia perhaps and becoming a puppet in the hands of a clique of Tamil-speaking IAS officers who are actually running the show. Much of that criticism is directed at V. Karthikeya Pandian, his former private secretary, who resigned from the IAS in October 2023 and was appointed chairman of the state’s powerful 5T programme, his cabinet minister status giving him the authority to oversee all the key state government departments. Pandian, who subsequen­tly joined the BJD and is now the party’s star campaigner, is accused of being de facto chief minister and projected to be Naveen’s successor. Union minister Dharmendra Pradhan, contesting from the Sambalpur Lok Sabha constituency and a potential CM candidate, minced no words when he asked, “Where is Naveen Patnaik? He is seen only in videos and is absent in the field. Neither the ministers nor the secretaries can meet him. There is simmering resentment against him in his party as he is in the grip of a cartel.”

BJP’s GAME PLAN

The BJP has also made restoring Odia “asmita” (pride) its primary election plank and pledged to stop “outsiders” like Pandian, who is of Tamil origin, from ruling the state. Having made deep inroads into the state, the party has overtaken the Congress as the principal challenger to the BJD. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the BJP increased its 2014 tally of one seat to eight, securing 38.4 per cent of the votes, while the BJD won 12 seats and netted 42.8 per cent of the votes. That streak did not extend to the assembly polls, though, where Naveen won with a landslide, as he did in 2014. The BJD won 112 of the 147 seats in the 2019 assembly polls, 38 more than the 74 seats it needed for a simple majority. It also managed to increase its vote share by 1.3 percentage points to 44.7 per cent, but saw a five-seat erosion on its 2014 tally. The BJP vote share in the 2019 assembly election, on the other hand, grew by 14.5 percentage points to 32.5 per cent; the party also secured 23 seats, 13 more than in 2014, but still woefully short of the number it needs in order to bridge the wide chasm and fell the BJD.

In the current round of elections, the BJP is hoping not only to win more Lok Sabha seats in the state but also to decimate the BJD in the assembly polls and oust Naveen. In that endeavour, there is no insult the BJP is not hurling at the Odisha CM. Sambit Patra, the BJP candidate from Puri, after organising a successful roadshow for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the temple town, mocked Naveen while talking to INDIA TODAY, “Naveen Patnaik has become a demi-god, a deity who does not blink, does not speak and does not sleep. He watches stonily as pandas (pandits) like Pandian perform the rituals of running the state. By speaking less, he retains his mystique, and the people’s curses are directed towards the pandits rather than against him for non-performance. But we will ensure that it is game over for Naveen.”

PATRA’s FAUX PAS

Unfortunately for Patra, his overconfident streak would vanish the same afternoon, when he chose to describe Lord Jagannath as a “Modi bhakt” at a press conference. The BJD was quick to pounce on this blasphemy, with Naveen taking to X to say, “Calling Mahaprabhu a bhakt of another human being is an insult to the Lord. This has hurt the sentiments and demeaned the faith of crores of Jagannath bhakts and Odias across the world.” Forced to apologise, Patra said he would fast for three days in front of the temple to seek forgiveness of the divine. Rubbing salt in his wound, Pandian told a news agency, “In this heat and dust, he should take care of himself and not faint.”

Meanwhile, PM Modi, who once seemed to have cordial relations with Naveen, even praising him at a function a month earlier, surprised everyone when he lashed out at the CM at a campaign rally in Kandhamal district on May 11. “People of the state are unhappy with the CM because he cannot name the districts of the state and their capitals from a public platform without reading from a piece of paper,” he said. “Can you trust him with your children’s future?” A remark that came in for some ridicule since districts have headquarters, not capitals. At another rally the same day, alluding to Naveen’s alleged incapacity to rule and allowing Pandian to fill in the gap, the PM said, “In Odisha, there is a SuperCM who lords over a democratically elected CM and MLAs.” Naveen hit back in a video recording the same day, though not in response to Modi’s allegation. “Remembering Odisha only during elections will not help you. Do you remember the promises you had made in 2014 and 2019? The people of Odisha remember your promise to reduce the prices of LPG, petrol and diesel, to create two crore jobs, to provide mobile connectivity to all, to reduce and waive GST. You have forgotten all these unfulfilled promises, but people of the state have not forgotten any of these.” On May 29, at a rally in Baripada, the PM went to the extent of holding Pandian responsible for Naveen’s deteriorating health. The CM promptly held a press conference and refuted the PM’s allegations.

However, even as the BJP gets personal in its campaign, Naveen in his rallies prefers to focus on his track record of development, the numerous welfare schemes of his government and his vision and game plan to make Odisha the top-ranking state in the country should he win another term. The Bhubaneswar roadshow was typical of this style of campaigning. When his green election campaign bus bedecked with white conch shells arrived, it was greeted with a burst of crackers and a shower of confetti. The crowd cheered loudly when the hydraulic lift bearing Naveen glided to the top. Attired in his trademark white cotton kurta-pyjama, Naveen, his silver-grey hair slightly askew, waved vigorously to the crowd before picking up the microphone.